The gradual global recession: India might buck the trend

In the lurking danger of Global Recession today, is India going to buck the Trend? The question explores its answer.

The two-year hiatus due to the Covid-19 pandemic compelled the world’s top leaders to meet at the Swiss mountain village of Davos in the beginning of the November month. The weeklong agenda was to tackle global issues along with finding solutions to the challenge which is one of the world’s most threatening issues.

Amongst the multiple threats on the global economy atmosphere, fears are there showing the advent of an oncoming recession which is topping the worry list of the world’s leaders responsible for business and government globally.

The fear of the economists say that it is too close now –just one year ahead of us. They say that a recession could occur in 2023. This might happen particularly if the Fed’s interest rate goes up stifle demand from people and businesses, or otherwise if the inflation strategy falls flat.

The depression has its bigger sound before the recession. People are pessimistic also after Elon Musk stated recently that he thought the world is already in a recession. He says, the situation may worsen over the course of the next one and a half years.

In fact, one opinion cannot display the real picture. Until the majority of the global financial experts say the same, a few such speculations cannot be taken for granted.

Also the opinion seems divided on this question. On one hand the economists warn of a recession, the bulls dismiss the fear calling it exaggeration.

As per the stock experts, the market is riding a potential 832% growth opportunity by the year 2030. This is also true that today, very few people are aware of this opportunity. If the mainstream media gets the whiff of it, the stock can go to the topmost height with its full potential.

Talk about the seasoned investors. They know, markets are having the forward looking growth whereas economic data looks backward looking, though in the month of October 2022 markets worldwide had tumbled. Then the Dow Jones Index has gone down around 9 per cent low while the BSE Sensex also has lost around 11 per cent over the last month.

They say probably the markets are hinting us something about the looming recession. We know, recession is almost the king of bad times, otherwise defining a global recession is not an easy task.

In technical terms, the economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of contraction in the GDP (gross domestic product). These periods are known by lower income of people, unemployment growth, fall in production and also drop in retail sales.

Here the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) can be seen as the authority over the knowledge. It is also recognised as the authority which defines the starting and ending dates of recessions in America.

The NBER data says in the last seventy seven years from 1945 to 2009, the recession as an average has lasted for 11 months. The most recent is the Covid-19 recession which began two years back in the month of February 2020 lasting only for 2 months. And this was also the the shortest U.S. recession in history.

Though economic recessions usually are portrayed as short-term events, but the consequences of high unemployment, decreasing incomes, and reduced economic activity might have lasting consequences towards the economy and for peoples’ economic situations.

Looking at the past four decades, recessions were seen several times in advanced economies globally.

It is also being considered that most of the global recessions have originated in America. America being the world’s largest economy, is interconnected with most of the numero uno  economies, then why the global economy may be geading for a recession.

Being realistic, predicting a recession is never an easy task for economists since there are a variety of reasons effect recessions arrival. For predicting a recession, changes in some variables such as asset prices, interest rates, the unemployment rate, and consumer confidence appears to be useful.

Inflation is Everywhere now a days and Americans are feeling  burdened with inflation. And this is what makes economists wonder whether that means a recession is on its way.